E-mini S&P (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3168
Fundamentals: Stocks around the world are surging to close out the week. U.S benchmarks are feeding off news that President Trump gave the green light to an interim “Phase One” trade deal. Although there is no reason to stand in front of this rally, which in and of itself is greasing the wheels, there is no official agreement in place. Furthermore, China has yet to confirm the deal and has concerns regarding a hard target for Agricultural purchases. This implies there may be last minute obstacles. What we do know is that each nation has done a terrific job in controlling the narrative this week, carefully crafting headlines in order to pressure the other ahead of the December 15th tariffs. Remember, we have seen the two sides laude a deal that has quickly fallen apart at the seams on multiple occasions over the last year and a half.
In the U.K, Prime Minister Johnson’s Conservative Party stomped the Labour Party in yesterday’s general election paving the way for a Brexit. The British FTSE has gained 1.75% to set a new record high. The British Pound gained as much as 4% also lifting the Euro. This has pressured the Dollar against its pairs ahead of Retail Sales data this morning. The Dollar was weaker on the heels of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting Wednesday but had recovered for a bit yesterday with a U.S-China trade deal in focus.
November Retail Sales at 7:30 am CT missed lofty expectations. The consumer has been driving the economy and today’s read is a bit of a disappointment for the what is considered the start of the holiday season. However, October was revised slightly better. Business inventories are due at 9:00 am CT and NY Fed President Williams speaks at 10:00 am CT
Technicals: Both the S&P and NQ are higher ahead of the bell with each pinging resistance levels before settling in just slightly. For the S&P we tightened a previous wide range to bring major three-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietray levels emailed to you each morning.
Crude Oil (January)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 59.18, up 0.42
Fundamentals: Cruder Oil tagged 60.00 early this morning amid interim “Phase One” trade deal tailwinds. Price action has slipped since though with further developments pouring cold water over the validity of a deal. First, China has been very silent into the morning and released a headline pointing to their concerns regarding a hard target for Agricultural purchases. Shortly thereafter, President Trump tweeted that the Wall Street Journal’s story on a trade was completely wrong; ‘Trump Agrees to Limited Trade Deal with China’. There is a lot of confusion and uncertainty in the air, but this certainly should not be surprising. China will be holding an official briefing at 9:00 am CT and we are hoping to find some clarity here. Hanging in the balance are the December 15th tariffs.
Technicals: We’ve held a Neutral Bias amid such uncertainty but have pointed to value in fading rallies to major three-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietray levels emailed to you each morning.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1472.3, down 2.7
Fundamentals: Gold traded very well overnight staving off sellers while global equity markets sureged to fresh records amid hopes that an interim “Phase One” trade deal was reached. This morning, Retail Sales missed loft expectations and this in the broader sense will act as support for the metal. However, U.S-China trade is front and center with President Trump tweeting, “The Wall Street Journal story on the China Deal is completely wrong, especially their statement on Tariffs. Fake News. They should find a better leaker!” He is referring to the article titled ‘Trump Agrees to Limited Trade Deal with China’. Chinese officials have a news conference planned for 9:00 am CT and this could bring some clarity.
Technicals: Gold battled and held major three-star support at 1463 and is now testing minor resistance at 14773.-1477.7. However, the bigger level is overhead with major three-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietray levels emailed to you each morning.
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