Fundamentals: Corn futures saw follow through pressure yesterday, much of what looked to be technical in nature. Weekly export inspections came in at 551,000 metric tons, within the range of expectations. Friday’s USDA report (11am CT) is the big-ticket item this week, analysts anticipate the corn yield to come in at 166 bushels per acre, 1 lower than the previous report. Harvested acres are estimated to come in at 81.3 million, down 500k from last month. Production is estimated to be near 13.502 bb. Yesterday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds added 1,602 contracts short, bringing their net short position to 85,115.
Technicals: We are still half-way optimistic on prices, but the last two trading sessions have put a damper on the technical backdrop. The market tripped stops below our pivot at 385, opening the door for a run to our first support pocket, 377-381. This is a MUST hold pocket for the bulls, a failure to do so would put the bears in control and likely take us to retest the contract lows from September. The bulls want to reclaim ground above....For the full report, sign up for your FREE two-week trial!
Fundamentals: March soybean futures managed to recover some of Friday’s losses as the dust settled, following the risk off headlines late last week. Weekly export inspections came in at 964,000 metric tons, towards the top end of expectations. Analysts estimate that Friday’s USDA report will show the yield at 46.5 bushels per acre, down .4 from the previous report. Harvested acres are estimated to be unchanged at 75.6 million acres. Production estimates are slightly lower, 3.153 bb, down from 3.550 in the previous report. Yesterday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds bought 26,364 contracts back, trimming their net short position to a measly 7,524 contracts.
Techncials: The market tested and held our first support pocket; we’ve identified that as 933 ¾-937 ¼. Though we have our bias set at Neutral, the bulls still have the technical advantage, so long as they continue to defend this pocket on a closing basis. If we see this pocket give way we could see the market drift into the low....For the full report, sign up for your FREE two-week trial!
Chicago Wheat (March)
Fundamentals: Chicago wheat futures slipped again yesterday as profit taking kicks in ahead of Friday’s USDA report. Wheat stocks are estimated to be at 970 million bushels, down from 974 in the last report. Weekly export inspections came in at 345,000 metric tons, towards the low end of estimates. Yesterday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds are sitting net long 27,270 contracts. We are continuing to monitor the US Dollar which has been in a multi-month down trend. If the dollar continues to soften, we could see that continue to support wheat.
Technicals: The market is continuing to retreat following last Thursday’s bearish technical reversal. The market moved below our pivot pocket which opens the door for a retest of the end of December lows, 536 ¼-538 ¾. Below that is....For the full report, sign up for your FREE two-week trial!
Kansas City Wheat (March)
Technicals: Kansas City wheat futures managed to defend our 4-star support pocket yesterday, we have had that defined as 470-471 ¾. This pocket represents the 50% retracement from the contract highs to the contract lows, as well as the breakout point at the end of December. A failure to defend this pocket could lead to additional pressure, taking prices to our next support pocket....For the full report, sign up for your FREE two-week trial!
Technicals: Cotton futures managed to recover losses from Friday to close at their highest price since May. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes above 70.50-71.15, we could see the market run near....For the full report, sign up for your FREE two-week trial!
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