Download the Foundations of Trading Options for FREE!
E-mini S&P (March)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3276, up 15.75
Fundamentals: U.S benchmarks closed at record highs yesterday and extended gains overnight ahead of Nonfarm Payroll at 7:30 am CT. The U.S-Iran situation has deescalated, top Chinese negotiator Liu He is set to visit Washington next week to sign the “Phase One” trade deal, the Fed thwarted a liquidity crisis and earnings are right around the corner. What is there not to love? Well, Nonfarm Payroll stands in the way today, but jobs have been plentiful, and this has broadly been one of the most consistent numbers for nearly a decade. In November, the Unemployment Rate regained 3.5%, the lowest in 50 years. All of this champions a consumer who is the heartbeat of this new bull market. Analysts expect a gain of 164,000 jobs and Average Hourly Earnings to increase by 0.3% while the Unemployment Rate holds steady at 3.5%. The data was solid this week and there will be an emphasis on Nonfarm Payroll to help offset a weak manufacturing sector. The Fed is expected to hold policy steady this year, meaning no more rate cuts to boost stocks. However, they expanded their balance sheet by more than 10% last year and there is no doubt this also buoyed the risk appetite. The Fed’s balance sheet is now approaching the $4.5 trillion record, can they keep this up? We maintain a narrative that this market needs to make a transition from Fed dependence to stronger data dependence
Technicals: Price action remains very healthy and the path of least resistance is higher. Our momentum indicators align with yesterday’s settlement to create today’s Pivots and the bulls are clearly in the driver’s seat while above here. Arguably, there is some unfinished business at Wednesday’s settlement prices as yesterday morning’s shallow pullback did not quite cover this gap. This area aligns multiple technical indicators to create major three-star support at ...
Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each morning.
Crude Oil (February)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 59.56, 0.05
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is consolidating below the $60 mark after one heck of a whipsaw week. There is no fresh news on the U.S-Iran front and the situation appears stable for the time being, allowing for the geopolitical premium to dissipate. Equity markets are at record highs and if they extend gains following Nonfarm Payroll, we would expect this to drag Crude Oil along to regain $60. Additionally, sellers may be cautious ahead of the weekend given the recent geopolitical landscape and ahead of the signing of the “Phase One” trade deal next week.
Technicals: We have held a minor Bearish Bias with a longer-term focus, and we plan to hold such as long as Crude Oil holds below the ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each morning.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1554.3, down 5.9
Fundamentals: Gold finds itself in a precarious near-term situation. Equity markets are at record levels, the Dollar has had a strong week and if Nonfarm Payroll comes in stronger than the 164,000 jobs and +0.3 Average Hourly Earnings expected, Gold could quickly find itself testing near the psychological $1500 mark. However, Treasuries are battling to hold ground signaling that the longer-term situation of lower rates for longer should continue to be a favorable narrative over the intermediate to long-term; watch the 2% ceiling in the 10-year Note.
Technicals: The bears have a near-term edge below 1552.1-1552.4 and the bulls must achieve a close back above ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each morning.
Sign up for 1 or all 4 of our daily Blue Line Express commodity reports!
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.