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The Blue Line Breakfast Report

Softs Market Mover Focus





March sugar is breaking away from the pack up 1.94% on the year and still with Palladium in the lead at 8.39% there are 23 commodities in positive territory so it's a tight race. With the energy markets stabilizing like crude oil and gasoline we should see sugar catch a bid. From the energy standpoint crude oil did test the 50 DMA today and had a hard bounce off it. India is still forecasting a large deficit and China is looking at increasing imports as well will see the trade agreement most likely signed on the 15th.  


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Daily Chart Analysis 

Price Outlook


Sugar is threatening another breakout to the upside as the volatility has picked up in the market. Looking at Stochastics, being in the middle of the range, we are indicating that we are in a consolidation phase however we are starting to trend higher. ADX which shows the strength of the trend, has increased to 22.85 indicating that the strength of the upward trend is gathering steam. My bias is that the market will hold the upward trend line and the breakout from the flag formation will continue to occur and ultimately end with an extension higher. Use the bottom of the flag and upward trend line as risk management for support.   




March Cocoa is up about 1/2 % on the year but looking to strengthen. Remember that cocoa is mainly impacted by the economy and although it is expanding, reports like unemployment play a small role in performance. Keep an eye on production estimates out of the Ivory Coast and the technicals.  


Daily Chart Analysis 

Price Outlook


Watch for a breakout of this wedge and the possibility for a run for the recent highs. Stochastics are beginning to climb into overbought territory ADX is weakening showing that the downward selloff might be out of steam. Keep an eye on 2575, if we see a breakout over this level the trend should change from consolidation to bull market.  





Worst performing commodity on the year down over 7.5% as of this writing while palladium is its mirror image up 7.5% on the year. The Brazilian Real is not providing much support now and I have attached a Bonus chart below so be sure to check it out. What I’m watching is the size of Brazil's 2020 coffee crop which is up double digits in comparison to 2019 and set to continue to expand. 


Daily Chart Analysis 

Price Outlook


Watch the downward trend as it has been aggressive in nature just like the bull rise from the lows. Moving averages haven’t been offering much support so I would disregard the 50-day moving average as support which was clearly violated and will now act as resistance. Stochastics have slid into oversold territory so the bears regain control and I would expect weak longs to throw in the towel soon so watch out for a volume spike. Keep an eye on ADX as the bear market may be gaining strength. 


**Bonus Charts**

Brazilian Real Chart 


Orange Juice *crop report later today released


Cotton *crop report later today released

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results


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